Korean Educational Development Institute(KEDI)

A study of establishing future oriented educational system in an era of declining number of students

Since 1980s, the number of students have decreased and such decreasing trend is expected to be continued for 10 years to come. Although various educational policies were employed in response to the decreasing number of students for past 35 years, they merely served as countermeasures without much long-term outlook. Hence, it is essential to establish a long-term policy with macroscopic analysis of the declining number of students. This research proposes how the educational system should be transformed considering decreasing number of students and political efforts required to achieve the transformation. Also it presents a solution to the decreasing number of students within the boundary of future education.

This research incorporates reference analysis, scenario method, conferences, domestic and foreign case studies, expert consultation and colloquium. While performing scenario method, social and educational policies of last two decades were analyzed drawing a social megatrend. This research analyzed the potential influence of the megatrend of the past two decades on current and future education, and it also identified variables significant to the education of future two decades. With application of BASICS(Battelle Scenario Inputs to Corporate Strategies) method, significance of numerous variables were evaluated, and an explorative study was conducted to draw prediction of future education scenario whereas normative study was utilized to draw desired future education scenario.